A little more than four years

After weeks of speculation in the press and even a recent denial, President Jonathan announced through his spokesman, Reuben Abati, that he will be sending a Bill to the National Assembly. The Bill will provide for a single tenure for all elected officials that will take effect from 2015. 

The reasons given for the proposal are the high cost of re-election campaigns, the need to concentrate on governance instead of focusing on re-election and to avoid the acrimony which the issue of re-election brings every four years. The President believes that a single term will 'change the face of our politics and accelerate the overall development of our nation.' In short, it is being touted as a magic bullet for our governance problems.

Read the statement here.

Nothing could be further from the truth. A bad leader is a bad leader, irrespective of how long his term is. In a democracy, the promise of re-election is one of the few motivations for a public official to perform, and the electorate should have the option of voting out a corrupt official before he can do more damage. All things being equal, good leaders get re-elected and bad ones get voted out. What is to stop a governor from looting throughout his 5, 6 or 7 years in office, knowing that he will not need re-election? For example, Ikedi Ohakim would still be in office now. Alao-Akala also. I am sure the people of Imo and Oyo states are happy that a term is just four years. The only thing worse than four years of bad leadership is five, six or seven years of the same.

High cost of re-election campaigns can be tackled by passing and enforcement of appropriate campaign finance laws. These laws should include a maximum amount that can be spent in running for each office, so that once elected, paying off sponsors by patronage does not become the priority. A list of donors to each campaign should also be publicly available. This is a way to reduce the money in our politics. At any rate, the cost of running government is an even bigger challenge due to the huge number of aides with all kinds of funny titles at every level, the duplication of ministries, crazy salaries, allowances and perks of office.

The President is being what Americans would call a 'flip flopper' on this issue. Before the elections, he said four years would be enough to make an impact. After being elected, the tone now became: 'four years is not enough'. Reuben Abati had criticised him for those comments in this article. Now, HE announces a proposal for a single tenure. Irony of ironies.

The statement also stresses that Goodluck Jonathan will not benefit from tenure elongation. This is not easy to believe. He broke the rotational presidency agreement of the PDP, in order to run in April. He has changed his tone about tenure. It is not far-fetched to imagine that he could run again in 2015. Even if he doesn't run, the statement reads: 'lawmakers will still be eligible for re-election as their constituencies may determine'. They will fight tooth and nail to claim the single tenure, turning constituencies into battlegrounds.

It is interesting that this is the first bill he will be sending to the legislature. It is a clear indication of his priorities: not jobs, not the economy, not security. A new president takes advantage of high popularity and goodwill to push through legislation that is important to his administration. Debate on this bill will use up a lot of political capital, which will affect the quick passage of far more important legislation, like the Petroleum Industry Bill. There are far more important issues to discuss, like federalism, the astronomical cost of government, security concerns and so on. Tenure elongation is diversionary and unnecessary.

Maybe the president needs to take lessons from governors Babatunde Fashola and Rotimi Amaechi about how to use four years well. Both are examples of purposeful governance. A few examples from abroad could also be pertinent:

The world's largest refinery is in Jamnagar, India. It was built in 3 years, and has a capacity of 661,000 barrels per day. India don't have oil, Nigeria does.

China built the world's longest sea bridge in four years.

Heathrow's Terminal 5, which can handle 35 million passengers a year, was built in just over five years.

A serious administration does not need more than four years.